Why might an analyst prefer to use the Perpetuity Method over the Exit Multiple Method for calculating Terminal Value?

An analyst might prefer to use the Perpetuity Method over the Exit Multiple Method for calculating Terminal Value primarily when there are potential uncertainties regarding industry conditions and the availability of reliable comparable companies. The Perpetuity Method, also known as the Gordon Growth Model, is well-suited for scenarios where a company is expected to generate stable cash flows across a long period, assuming consistent growth rates after a specific forecast period.

When there is a lack of robust comparables or when industry dynamics are uncertain, employing the Exit Multiple Method can lead to misleading estimates based on potentially flawed multiples derived from peers. The Perpetuity Method provides a more stable valuation foundation because it is inherently designed to factor in a long-term growth assumption, making it less sensitive to the fluctuations and volatility that might affect multiples derived from market comparisons. This choice ensures a more conservative and potentially realistic assessment of a company's enduring value, especially when dealing with changing conditions or less reliable industry benchmarks.